Following a significant bounce after Brexit, equities have stumbled, though we believe the recent declines were just a sell-off and do not portend anything more ominous, like a recession.
Read more: our perspectives on the recent stock market volatility
In our view, not much has changed fundamentally. We are still in an era when central banks’ monetary policies are extraordinarily accommodative and will likely remain so for quite some time. And we continue to believe that the current business cycle is going to be one of the longest ever experienced in the history of modern economics. From our standpoint, the current business cycle has matured but not ended, and still has 2-5 years to run unless central banks commit major policy errors.
We still hold a favorable view of equities—specifically U.S. and emerging market stocks. When economic growth picks up, cyclical sectors have the potential to rebound sharply, which is what they have already begun doing since the first quarter of this year. From a longer-term perspective, now that there are some signs of economic deceleration, investing in growth—rather than value—stocks could be the smart thing to do.
In our opinion, there is little chance the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates through the remainder of the year. Such hikes would be harmful to the U.S. and international economies. We also believe monetary policy throughout the world will remain easy in the foreseeable future, thereby supporting asset prices.
Read more: 4 market predictions for the rest of 2016
Interest rates are likely to remain low globally as well. There seems to be a growing consensus that negative interest rates, a policy tool some central banks have experimented with recently, is hurting financial sectors and could cause collateral damage. After all, credit expansion, which is driven by banks, is key to economic growth. Monetary policy typically supports credit expansion through the financial sector, which acts as one of a central bank’s main transmission mechanisms. Therefore, we expect central banks to avoid any further collateral damage by abandoning negative interest rate policies, and instead resort to buying bonds and other securities. The likelihood we’ll see rates diving into more negative territory is, we think, very small.
Finally we expect a stable or mildly weaker U.S. dollar to lift the economy and financial market returns through the remainder of the year.
For a deeper dive, watch the video or read our Q&A on recent stock market action and outlook for the remainder of 2016.
Emerging and developing market investments may be especially volatile. Equities are subject to market risk and volatility; they may gain or lose value. Investments in securities of growth companies may be volatile. Risks associated with rising interest rates are heightened given that rates in the U.S. are at or near historic lows. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and share prices can fall.
Mutual funds are subject to market risk and volatility. Shares may gain or lose value.
These views represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and are not intended as investment advice or to predict or depict the performance of any investment. These views are as of the publication date, and are subject to change based on subsequent developments.