Two 2016 Election Predictions

Before diving into our predictions about the 2016 election cycle, we first need to share an important caveat. Forecasting is not an exact science.

A U.S. presidential election is a long journey with many twists and turns. With all the candidate surges, gaffes and collapses yet to transpire, along with domestic and international events that will shape voter perceptions, it would be easier to forecast next November’s weather than to predict the presidential election outcome.

As of this writing, it’s still not even certain who the major party candidates will be. Nevertheless, it still seems possible to have reasonable expectations about how the two major political parties will fare.

Here are our two predictions:

1. The Republicans will likely retain control of the House of Representatives.

The U.S. Constitution determined that a census would be conducted every 10 years, and its results would determine how the House’s 435 seats are apportioned among the 50 states. The most recent one took place in 2010, a year when Republicans scored many political victories at the federal and state level. The power they gained enabled them to draw the lines of congressional districts to favor Republican candidates. You can likely paint the House red at least through the 2020 election.

2. Regardless of who controls the Senate, the next president is unlikely to have a filibuster-proof upper House.

Without the votes to stop a debate, the filibuster remains a powerful negotiating tool for any block of 41 Senators, whoever holds the Senate majority. President Obama and the Democrats held a majority in the House, and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate from mid-2009 until February 2010, and still needed unusual parliamentary maneuvers to pass the Affordable Care Act. Barring a historic landslide, the next president is unlikely to have even that brief legislative advantage.

For more election insights, read the illustrative Election 2016 whitepaper and follow @OppFunds.