Where Are Equity Opportunities Located Today?
Global equity performance in 2018 has taken some surprising turns. Despite generally stable fundamentals, emerging market (EM) equities have experienced a punishing six months thanks to factors including trade wars, investor caution, and currency weakness. In Europe, equity valuations are attractive, monetary policy is accommodative, and share prices are oversold, but the market faces headwinds. U.S. stocks, meanwhile, continue to enjoy one of their longest periods of outperformance, despite risks that include tightening monetary policy, a stronger dollar, and slowing export growth.
Will this dynamic hold? Despite recent weakness, our EM equity thesis of attractive valuations plus strong economic growth hasn’t changed, and we see opportunity for long-term investors. In Europe, however, slowing growth may continue to hamper equity markets. And in the United States, we expect more of the same, with U.S. large-cap growth stocks continuing to outperform their small-cap value peers.
How Is the Playbook Designed?
In our view, a balanced approach to a formulating successful equity strategy requires a careful and thorough assessment of an array of factors, presented below. The views presented in the Playbook arise out of a systematic framework that incorporates each of these important factors in a consistent manner.
We apply this framework to key global equity markets, offering insights that investors can leverage as they build and maintain an equity portfolio. Today, for example, our technical analysis underscores what may be a generational buying opportunity for emerging market stocks, which are experiencing heavy selling pressure – a positive from a contrarian perspective. Over the past 30 years, rebounds from oversold conditions have been followed by multi-year periods of EM outperformance. We believe this could be another one of those episodes.
Updated Views Every Six Months
For more details on these and other trends impacting global equity markets, please download the complete Equity Strategy Playbook, and check back in six months for our updated views.
For analysis of income-producing asset classes, view our Income Strategy Playbook.