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Conversation of the Week

Strong positive earnings guidance this quarter. Markets care whether things are getting better or worse.

Slide 2017h1 13

Speaker Notes

We often hear that equity returns are being manufactured by policymakers.

Stocks reflect partial ownership in real companies, with real products and services, and real earnings. The performance of those stocks simply reflect the performance of those companies over the long term.

  • Over the short term, those stocks can reflect all kinds of external circumstances, but from 1935 to 2015 there is 0.95 correlation between the S&P 500 Index and S&P 500 Index earnings.
Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/31/16. Company logos are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. The mention of specific companies does not constitute a recommendation on behalf of any fund or OppenheimerFunds, Inc. Correlation expresses the strength of relationship between distribution of returns of two sets of data. The correlation coefficient is always between +1 (perfect positive correlation) and -1 (perfect negative correlation). A perfect correlation occurs when the two series being compared behave in exactly the same manner. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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